2008 Presidential Debate 3: Revenge of Joe the Plumber

I wasn't home for the debate, and I wouldn't have watched it anyway. Instead, I turned to Fox and CNN after it was over. The Fox analysts generally considered it a draw while the CNN analysts and the folks they polled (not the call-in types) said Obama came out ahead. Since Fox tilts right while CNN tilts left, that indicates an Obama win. To put it mathematically, if Fox calls it 50-50 while CNN calls is 65-35 and we correct each number by a bias factor of about 10, that comes out to 60-40 Obama at Fox and 55-45 Obama at CNN, or 57.5-42.5 overall.

One interesting comment I heard or thought I heard was Bill Kristol of Fox, spiked interest over the weekend by suggesting McCain "Fire the Campaign," saying that just because Elizabeth Dole is going to lose in North Carolina, we can't infer McCain will also lose the Tarheel State. I've been reading some blog reports and current analysis at Real Clear Politics that Mrs. Dole is trailing, and now I think Kristol has said he expects her to lose. Elizabeth Dole losing Jesse Helms's old seat could be a leading indicator toward a very good night for Senate Democrats.

Joe, for the record, remains an undeclared voter, the fall 2008 version of a "super delegate."