A National Party No More?

In 2003, then-Senator (and former Georgia governor) Zell Miller published A National Party No More, arguing the Democratic party was marginalizing itself and collapsing almost to nothing in the South. The 2004 elections made Miller seem prescient, with the ratio of Republicans to Democrats in the fomer Confederacy collapsing from 13 - 9 to 18 - 4. Those five Senate seats lost in the South, all in states where incumbents (including Miller) retired, combined with the failure of Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerrey in 2004 to carry a single Southern state, made a Democratic majority in the Senate or a Democratic President seem extremely unlikely.

In the off year elections of 2006, in special elections between 2006 and 2008, and in the 2008 Presidential election, Democrats' situation in the South improved. Democratic challenger and former Republican Jim Webb defeated Republican Senator George Allen (who had been presumed a likely 2008 Presidential candidate) in Virginia. Democrats gained the seats of scandal plagued Congressmen Tom DeLay in Texas and Tom Foley in Florida as well as a seat in western North Carolina and an additional upset victory in Florida. Then, when Republicans left seats open in Louisiana and Mississippi, Democrats won both.

The 2008 election brought Democrats some bad news in the South. The Congressional seats that had been held by DeLay and Foley returned to Republican control, as did the seat in Louisiana. Thus, Miller was vindicated, correct?

No. President-elect Barack Obama won Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. North Carolina hadn't gone Democratic since 1976, Virginia since Johnson's landslide in 1964. Not only that, but Mark Warner won a landslide victory for the Senate seat left open by retiring Senator John Warner, and Kay Hagen (a virtual unknown prior to 2008) defeated Senator Elizabeth Dole. Democrats picked up one seat each in Alabama and North Carolina, two seats in Florida, and apparently a remarkable three seats in Virginia. The Key House Results page at Real Clear Politics shows all the House results and candidates.

To be sure, the Democrats remain a minority party in the South. John McCain won eight of the eleven states, and Republicans still hold a 15 - 7 advantage in Senate seats. Only four Democratic governors occupy state houses, in Arkansas, Tennessee, North Carolina, and Virginia. Republicans also retain a strong majority of Southern House seats.

Do the pickups, since 2004, of 10 House seats, 3 Senate seats, and the electoral votes of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida indicate a Democratic Renaissance in the South? I'm not yet convinced.

This much, however, seems clear. Good Democratic candidates, with well run and substantive campaigns, in the right years, can compete in the South. Whether the Democrats may approach parity in the land of Jefferson Davis and Robert E. Lee depends upon the candidates and the voters.